To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol).Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09ASTANA1891.
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol).Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #09ASTANA1891.
Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
09ASTANA1891 | 2009-10-20 05:18 | 2011-08-30 01:44 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Astana |
VZCZCXRO4282 OO RUEHIK DE RUEHTA #1891/01 2930518 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 200518Z OCT 09 FM AMEMBASSY ASTANA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6658 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE 2048 RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1419 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2119 RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1062 RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEKJCS/DIA WASH DC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1608 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC RHMFIUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RUEHAST/USOFFICE ALMATY 1947
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASTANA 001891 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EEB/ESC STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ENRG EAGR ECIN EINV KZ SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: WORLD BANK OFFICIAL DISCUSSES REGIONAL ECONOMIC STABILITY REF: ASTANA 1365 ASTANA 00001891 001.3 OF 003 ¶1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 7, the DCM met Motoo Konishi, the World Bank's Regional Representative for Central Asia, who described his surprisingly positive views on each Central Asian country's economic situation, the potential impact of global climate change, and the prospects for a regional energy market. END SUMMARY. TAJIKISTAN'S STABILITY IS MAIN CONCERN ¶3. (SBU) Konishi said his main concern in the region is Tajikistan's economic and political stability. He said 45% of Tajikistan's GDP comes from remittances abroad, including oil workers in Russia, many of whom have returned home as Russia's economy has gone into recession. He told the DCM that Tajikistan is dependent on international donor assistance, and the $116 million loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ensured the country's survival last winter. Konishi questioned the government's decision to spend $100 million on the Rogun hydroelectric power plant and suggested the money would be better spent heating schools and diversifying the economy. Konishi said the Chinese have made significant investments, especially in infrastructure projects such as road construction in eastern Tajikistan. To improve stability, Konishi said Tajikistan would have to increase food security, ensure reliable energy supplies, and strengthen border controls. Regarding the latter, Konishi said he was concerned that the conflict in Afghanistan would drive Taliban forces northward, towards Tajikistan. "If Tajikistan goes extreme," he said, "there's nothing left for them. Kyrgyzstan will cut off the border, and suddenly, we've got a big problem on our hands." KAZAKHSTAN REQUESTS WORLD BANK LOAN ¶4. (SBU) Konishi praised the government of Kazakhstan for its "smart, savvy" management of the financial and economic crisis. "The government," he said, "has been able to shift gears on the run, and learn and adapt very quickly." Konishi said that Kazakhstan must still diversify its economy away from a reliance on the extractive industries, but he complimented the government's fiscal discipline and cooperation with international financial institutions (IFI). Konishi said Prime Minister Masimov is concerned that the price of oil will fall in the near future, and the economy will experience a "W"-shaped recovery, with the second dip yet to come. According to Konishi, the government and World Bank are negotiating the terms of the government's recently requested $1-2 billion loan. When asked why the government did not draw upon its $25 billion National Oil Fund, Konishi suggested that a World Bank loan would be politically more palatable. "Once you begin to erode the Oil Fund," he said, "you create a crisis of confidence." MASIMOV'S STRATEGIC PLAN ¶5. (SBU) Konishi said Masimov convenes regular brainstorming sessions with deputy prime ministers and World Bank vice presidents. He said the debate during these half-day sessions is "lively and very sophisticated." According to Konishi, Masimov typically watches, listens, and learns from the debates, and "then he implements." Masimov, according to Konishi, asked the next World Bank brainstorming session to discuss Kazakhstan's "territorial development" and "economic geography," in order to ensure even, sustainable growth throughout the country. Konishi said the majority of jobs and wealth are concentrated in Astana, Almaty, and Atyrau, while southern cities such as Shymkent are of particular interest for further development. (NOTE: Masimov also raised this issue with CODEL Boehner on August 8, reftel. END NOTE). THE MALAYSIAN MODEL ASTANA 00001891 002.3 OF 003 ¶6. (SBU) Commenting on the government's negotiations to restructure BTA Bank debt, Konishi said, "I think they've done well to protect their interests, and are unlikely to bend" to accommodate export credit agencies and other creditors. Konishi also suggested that Kazakhstan is moving toward a "Malaysian model," which involves "picking winners and backing national champions." UZBEKISTAN'S ECONOMIC STABILITY ¶7. (SBU) Konishi said that Uzbekistan has the most stable economy in the region, "much more stable than Kazakhstan, because the economy is so closed." He said that none of the country's banks suffered during the global financial crisis, because they were not tied to the international financial system. In public, Uzbek officials have boasted about the country's isolation from the international economic crisis. In private conversations with the bank, however, Konishi said that Uzbek officials have sought the bank's advice, concerned that Uzbekistan must diversify its economy to reduce its dependence on commodities such as cotton, gold, and gas. He added that the food processing industry has potential, as long as the agricultural sector remains stable. HYDROPOWER POLITICS ¶8. (SBU) According to Konishi, Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov recently sent a letter to World Bank President Robert Zoellick, offering to participate in an international consortium to build a hydropower plant, if the World Bank could guarantee the security and quality of water supply and the seismic stability of the plant. Konishi considered this project feasible, given Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and even Pakistani interest in Central Asia's downstream energy supplies. TURKMENISTAN MAY BE OPENING UP ¶9. (SBU) Konishi said Turkmenistan is similar to Uzbekistan, in that both have stable but closed economies and must diversify away from a dependence on commodities. According to Konishi, Turkmenistan's President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is interested in engaging with the outside world, and has made some progress in doing business with international companies. However, he remains somewhat leery of large, private companies from big countries. THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ¶10. (SBU) Konishi, who worked from 1997-2009 as the World Bank's Sector Manager for Water Supply and Sanitation, said that global climate change will eventually have a mixed, but decisive, impact on Central Asia, particularly affecting water resources. He speculated that northern areas in Central Asia will ultimately become warmer and wetter, improving their chances for agricultural growth. However, southern areas, which now rely on agriculture, could become too hot and dry for some crops. A REGIONAL ENERGY MARKET ¶11. (SBU) Konishi sees huge potential for a common Central Asian energy market. He noted that the region contains abundant supplies of oil, gas, and coal in addition to untapped energy from hydro, geothermal, solar, and wind power. He mused that a Central Asian common energy market would offer the world's cheapest energy prices and would include one of the most diverse baskets of energy products. However, he emphasized a lack of technology and tense relations among the Central Asian countries as two major factors that affect the development of a regional energy market. Regarding technology, Konishi noted China's experimentation with solar and wind power, which it could potentially develop in Central Asia. As for relations among the Central Asian countries, Konishi admitted that an expansive, common energy market in Central Asia is "all pie in the sky if they won't trust each other." ASTANA 00001891 003.3 OF 003 ¶12. (SBU) COMMENT: Konishi brings over 15 years of regional experience to his unique perspectives on the region. His tour d'horizon shows that the economic success of each country will depend on the talents and decisions of individual decision-makers. But regional cooperation can produce tremendous gains, especially in the development of new forms of energy, if Central Asian states can slowly build trust through reliance on neutral actors, such as the World Bank. END COMMENT. ¶13. (U) Embassies Ashgabat, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Tashkent have cleared this cable. HOAGLAND
Wikileaks